Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
