Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
