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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who runs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd